As President Trump unveils a sweeping global tariff policy, a new HarrisX poll reveals a sharply divided American public, with growing concerns about inflation, market volatility, and a looming recession. While half of Americans view tariffs as an effective tool, many are bracing for short-term financial pain and a slow recovery.

According to the nationally representative survey of more than 1850 registered voters, 72% expect the new tariffs will lead to higher consumer prices — a concern shared across party lines. Large majorities of Democrats (84%), Independents (73%), and even Republicans (62%) anticipate rising costs.

Nearly as many voters (71%) believe the tariffs will trigger a short-term recession. That concern cuts across party lines, with 86% of Democrats, 69% of Independents, and 60% of Republicans expecting the tariffs to lead to an economic downturn.

Americans are also split on the long-term impact of tariffs. Just under half (47%) believe tariffs will ultimately lead to economic growth, while 53% predict economic decline. Among Republicans, optimism remains high — 76% expect growth — but that contrasts sharply with Democrats, 75% of whom expect the opposite.

"Americans are worried about what tariffs will mean for their wallets in the near term, but there's still hope among many that this policy could pay off in the long run," said Dritan Nesho, CEO and Chief Pollster at HarrisX. "The data highlights both economic anxiety and a belief in the strategic leverage of tariffs, although that is shrinking."

Consumer Spending Holds for Essentials, But Many Pausing Big Purchases

Consumer behavior also reflects growing economic caution. While most Americans continue to buy everyday essentials — 77% are purchasing groceries and 72% beverages as usual — many are pulling back on discretionary or big-ticket items. Fewer than half say they are buying household appliances (43%), upgrading their phones (44%), buying new cars (29%), or purchasing luxury goods (27%) as they usually would.

Business Decision-Makers and Investors Signal Cautious Optimism

While voters are bracing for short-term economic pain, business decision-makers and investors are somewhat more optimistic about navigating the road ahead.

Seventy-nine percent of business decision-makers expect the tariffs to lead to a short-term recession — even higher than the general public — but they are also more confident in the markets and long-term opportunities. Fifty-eight percent say it's a good time to invest in the stock market, compared to just 37% of voters overall. Two-in-three (66%) business decision-makers also support imposing reciprocal tariffs on countries that tax American goods.

Fifty-two percent of stock investors think it is a good time to invest in the market and 44% expect the market to rebound within the next six months. Crypto investors are particularly optimistic: 67% say it is a good time to invest in cryptocurrencies and 61% say the same about the stock market. 

Trump's Job Approval on the Decline

President Trump's overall job approval has slipped in the wake of the reciprocal tariff announcement. Today, 47% of registered voters approve of the job he's doing, down from 52% just a week ago. The decline spans party lines, including a four-point drop among Republicans (from 87% to 83%).

Voters are also less confident in Trump's economic leadership: 44% now approve of his handling of the economy, down from 47% the previous week.

Public Divided on Tariff Strategy and Retaliation Measures

Views on the scope of Trump's tariff policy are also mixed. Nearly half of voters (48%) say the tariffs go too far, while 18% believe they don't go far enough. A third (35%) say the scale is "about right." A slim majority (54%) support reciprocal tariffs — a stance especially popular among Republicans (81%). Still, skepticism remains about whether such measures will lead to concessions from trading partners — only 43% of voters believe they will.

"The public is bracing for short-term pain but remains divided on whether the long-term strategy will deliver results," Nesho added. "This moment is a stress test — showing how Americans are weighing near-term costs against long-term hopes."