New vehicle inventory on auto dealer lots hit 3.14 million units in October. It was the second consecutive month new vehicle inventory jumped by 90,000 units (2.9%), according to ZeroSum's monthly "State of the Dealer" report for November.

The growing supply is impacting both new and used vehicle pricing. For new vehicles, average marketed pricing declined by more than $300.00 and market adjustments below MSRP (discounts and incentives) grew for the eighth consecutive month. The average price for certified used vehicles has fallen from $39,351.00 in August to $38,166.00 in October – a decline of more than $1,000.

 New vehicle inventory still remains below historical levels of 3.3-3.5 million but continues to move closer each month.

"Over the course of the long inventory recovery period, vehicle counts have remained lower than they were prior to the pandemic," said Jeff Englishmen, Vice President of Dealer Success at ZeroSum. "While we are still not back to an oversupply situation, the recent acceleration of growth points to the potential of that reoccurrence. We aren't seeing significant shifts in sales velocity yet, but dealers should be aware of these big picture market dynamics when pricing and supporting their inventory positions."

Zero Sum predicts both used and certified used sales volumes will fall in November; Used will fall from 1.27 million units in October to 1.21 million units in November, while certified used will fall from 168,000 in October to 161,000 in November.

"The used vehicle market has been very steady over the past year, both in terms of supply and demand," said Englishmen. "However, we are starting to see some initial signs that the sales velocity trends are weakening slightly, which definitely bear watching going forward."

In other findings:

• New vehicle turn rates remained relatively stable, rising from 36% in September to 37% in October;

• New vehicle days-to-move grew slightly, from 69 days to 70 days;

• Used vehicle turn rates went from 64% to 65% from September to October;

• Used vehicle days to move went from 43 in September to 44 in October.

ZeroSum is an automotive retail agency that provides cutting-edge inventory-based digital marketing solutions tailored to dealers. The State of the Dealer report is the first and premier data source for the new, used, and certified pre-owned automotive market.

Click here to download ZeroSum's entire November State of the Dealer Report, including vehicle movement, turn rate, days-to-move, inventory, and pricing trends for new, used, and certified vehicles.