Mortgage Lock-In Effect Shows Signs of Easing as New Listings Increase
Friday, October 4th, 2024
Sellers got moving as mortgage rates notably hit a 24-month low following the Federal Reserve's jumbo rate cut of 50 bps in September. According to the Realtor.com® September Housing Report, newly listed homes increased by 11.6% compared to last September, yielding a significant reversal from the 0.9% decrease in August 2024, while actively listed homes rose 34.0%.
"Sellers, especially those who are locked into a low rate, have been waiting for market conditions to change. Now that we're seeing mortgage rates down to their lowest levels in two years, there are signs of movement, with more sellers putting homes on the market even in what's typically a real estate shoulder season," said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, Realtor.com®. "We expect mortgage rates to hold around 6% through the end of the year, which is a significant difference from their 7.8% high in October 2023. This has increased the buying power of many home shoppers and is a bonus over and above the seasonal factors that make this time of year the Best Time to Buy."
September 2024 Housing Metrics – National
|
Metric |
Change over Sept. 2023 |
Change over Sept. 2019 |
|
Median listing price |
-1.0% (to $425,000) |
+36.0 % |
|
Active listings |
+34.0 % |
-23.2 % |
|
New listings |
+11.6 % |
-11.8 % |
|
Median days on market |
+7 days (to 55 days) |
-7 days |
|
Share of active listings with price reductions |
+0.5 percentage points (to 18.4%) |
-1.0 percentage points |
|
Median List Price Per Sq.Ft. |
+2.3 % |
+50.8 % |
Chiseling Away at the "Lock-in" Effect
For the past few years, the real estate market has been plagued by the "lock-in" effect, whereby homeowners, who are locked into a relatively low mortgage rate, have been staying put, yielding a negative impact on available inventory. In fact, as of mid-2024, 84% of outstanding mortgages had a mortgage rate below 6%, and 56% had a rate below 4%. However, according to the Realtor.com®September housing data, the number of new listings jumped on a year-over-year basis, reaching the highest level for any September since 2021. The jump could indicate that homeowner sentiment is shifting, with larger numbers ready to get back into the market and sell. In fact, markets where homes are more expensive saw the most growth in new listings, perhaps because buyers in these areas see the biggest impact from falling mortgage rates.
Metros with Highest Increase in New Listings in September 2024
|
Metro |
% change in New Listings count YoY |
Median Listing Price |
|
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA |
41.8 % |
$772,425 |
|
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA |
27.1 % |
$1,432,170 |
|
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV |
26.2 % |
$599,948 |
|
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO |
25.5 % |
$610,250 |
|
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH |
24.4 % |
$839,900 |
|
Raleigh-Cary, NC |
24.2 % |
$453,165 |
|
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA |
22.6 % |
$1,154,440 |
|
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA |
21.5 % |
$997,000 |
|
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA |
21.5 % |
$567,500 |
|
Richmond, VA |
20.1 % |
$442,346 |
The Slowest September Since 2019
Generally, buyers can look forward to not only an increase in inventory, but a little less time constraint as homes stay on the market longer. This September, the typical home spent 55 days on the market, which is seven more days than last year and two more days than August 2024. Compared to previous years, September 2024 marked the slowest one since 2019.
While the typical home on the market this September spent 55 days on the market, in certain metros that number is even higher. A look at the top 50 metros shows a typical home in New Orleans spent 78 days on the market, an increase of 13 days from last September. Rounding out the five metros with the highest median days spent on market are Miami (73 days), Austin (72 days), San Antonio (67 days), and Tampa (66 days). On the opposite end, the metros that experienced the fastest movement include Milwaukee (31 days) followed by San jose (31 days), Boston (31 days), Hartford (33 days), and San Francisco (33 days).
Home Values Grow
An increase in price-per-square foot indicates the growth in value of homes, and according to data in September 2024, homes are seeing sizable price growth compared to homes listed prior to the pandemic. The median listing price per square foot increased by 2.3% year-over-year, but compared to September 2019, the price per square foot has grown by 50.9%. In fact, among the top 50 metros, the price per square foot growth rate ranged from 22.7% to 71.9%. Leading the way is, perhaps not by surprise, the New Yorkmetro area with a 71.9% increase in price per square foot vs. September 2019. Followed by Tampa (+63.6%), and Hartford (+62.3%). Markets which saw the lowest return included San Francisco (+22.7%), New Orleans (+25.0%), and Birmingham (+26.7%).
"Generally speaking, relief is brewing. On the one hand, buyers are seeing not only an increase in home listings but they're also seeing homes spend more time on the market, which means more options and less frenzy to buy," said Ralph McLaughlin, Sr. Economist, Realtor.com®. "For sellers, there's been positive movement in home value as indications show an increase in price growth since before the pandemic. And, all around, the decline in mortgage rates are lowering the barrier to entry and encouraging people to get into the market once again."
September 2024 Housing Overview of the 50 Largest Metros
|
Metro Area |
Median Listing Price |
Median Listing Price YoY |
Median Listing Price per Sq. Ft. YoY |
Median Listing Price vs September 2019 |
Median Listing Price per Sq. Ft. vs September 2019 |
|
$414,560 |
-2.7 % |
1.1 % |
31.7 % |
51.2 % |
|
|
$520,000 |
-6.6 % |
-4.1 % |
44.1 % |
54.8 % |
|
|
$369,900 |
0.0 % |
1.7 % |
12.7 % |
28.1 % |
|
|
$300,000 |
0.3 % |
1.4 % |
12.5 % |
26.5 % |
|
|
$839,900 |
-1.1 % |
0.7 % |
42.5 % |
59.7 % |
|
|
$277,450 |
6.8 % |
6.8 % |
34.5 % |
44.9 % |
|
|
$430,000 |
1.2 % |
2.0 % |
26.7 % |
57.3 % |
|
|
$379,900 |
1.3 % |
2.9 % |
19.3 % |
33.3 % |
|
|
$337,000 |
-9.5 % |
3.3 % |
24.9 % |
50.7 % |
|
|
$262,213 |
9.3 % |
14.0 % |
32.5 % |
48.4 % |
|
|
$377,450 |
-0.6 % |
4.0 % |
29.7 % |
54.2 % |
|
|
$439,450 |
-2.3 % |
-0.1 % |
27.4 % |
43.3 % |
|
|
$610,250 |
-6.0 % |
0.3 % |
22.9 % |
43.2 % |
|
|
$277,000 |
5.7 % |
5.0 % |
13.7 % |
31.9 % |
|
|
$412,400 |
3.1 % |
15.0 % |
38.3 % |
62.7 % |
|
|
$370,000 |
0.0 % |
-0.2 % |
18.8 % |
37.2 % |
|
|
$324,950 |
-1.5 % |
3.8 % |
22.7 % |
52.7 % |
|
|
$399,000 |
-6.1 % |
-2.2 % |
32.3 % |
50.1 % |
|
|
$389,500 |
-8.4 % |
-2.1 % |
24.9 % |
42.3 % |
|
|
$477,250 |
-1.0 % |
3.8 % |
48.4 % |
55.1 % |
|
|
$1,154,440 |
-1.7 % |
1.9 % |
37.8 % |
47.7 % |
|
|
$318,250 |
0.6 % |
3.4 % |
20.3 % |
41.7 % |
|
|
$336,225 |
8.5 % |
0.0 % |
45.4 % |
60.9 % |
|
|
$525,000 |
-12.4 % |
-9.1 % |
31.5 % |
42.8 % |
|
|
$389,900 |
11.4 % |
7.6 % |
44.5 % |
44.4 % |
|
|
$432,500 |
-2.8 % |
0.9 % |
26.1 % |
32.0 % |
|
|
$547,865 |
-5.4 % |
0.7 % |
47.4 % |
61.8 % |
|
|
$325,000 |
-3.0 % |
-1.2 % |
14.0 % |
25.0 % |
|
|
$764,000 |
6.3 % |
8.8 % |
32.4 % |
72.7 % |
|
|
$314,950 |
-4.6 % |
-0.5 % |
24.7 % |
40.9 % |
|
|
$429,950 |
-5.6 % |
-1.6 % |
34.1 % |
52.0 % |
|
|
$379,450 |
8.4 % |
5.9 % |
28.8 % |
51.0 % |
|
|
$519,850 |
-2.3 % |
-0.5 % |
35.3 % |
51.4 % |
|
|
$245,000 |
-1.5 % |
5.2 % |
22.9 % |
29.9 % |
|
|
$604,890 |
-3.2 % |
0.0 % |
28.5 % |
38.3 % |
|
|
$567,500 |
3.2 % |
6.1 % |
49.6 % |
47.1 % |
|
|
$453,165 |
-1.4 % |
2.3 % |
23.3 % |
51.3 % |
|
|
$442,346 |
0.7 % |
4.0 % |
37.1 % |
56.2 % |
|
|
$599,000 |
3.5 % |
2.2 % |
45.1 % |
58.0 % |
|
|
$282,500 |
13.0 % |
8.5 % |
35.9 % |
42.6 % |
|
|
$635,000 |
-2.3 % |
0.7 % |
29.7 % |
37.7 % |
|
|
$339,948 |
-2.8 % |
-2.2 % |
18.9 % |
36.9 % |
|
|
$997,000 |
-5.0 % |
1.1 % |
41.5 % |
59.1 % |
|
|
$997,500 |
-8.9 % |
-6.2 % |
6.6 % |
22.4 % |
|
|
$1,432,170 |
2.4 % |
2.6 % |
27.6 % |
27.5 % |
|
|
$772,425 |
-3.3 % |
-0.4 % |
31.0 % |
47.8 % |
|
|
$299,900 |
7.1 % |
7.1 % |
34.6 % |
31.3 % |
|
|
$414,948 |
-5.5 % |
-2.7 % |
47.6 % |
63.6 % |
|
|
$390,000 |
2.8 % |
5.0 % |
33.8 % |
44.6 % |
|
|
$599,948 |
-2.4 % |
4.4 % |
26.3 % |
53.8 % |
|
Metro Area |
Active Listing Count YoY |
New Listing Count YoY |
Median Days on Market |
Median Days on Market Y-Y (Days) |
Price– Reduced Share |
Price-Reduced Share Y-Y (Percentage Points) |
|
52.7 % |
11.5 % |
50 |
7 |
17.5 % |
2.5 pp |
|
|
22.9 % |
-1.4 % |
72 |
14 |
25.0 % |
-8.8 pp |
|
|
24.7 % |
14.3 % |
38 |
1 |
27.4 % |
1.3 pp |
|
|
29.5 % |
6.5 % |
54 |
5 |
28.2 % |
1.6 pp |
|
|
29.8 % |
24.4 % |
31 |
0 |
16.5 % |
1.4 pp |
|
|
13.9 % |
6.8 % |
40 |
1 |
10.8 % |
1.6 pp |
|
|
61.0 % |
10.3 % |
48 |
8 |
19.0 % |
4.9 pp |
|
|
13.8 % |
5.2 % |
36 |
-1 |
25.9 % |
1.5 pp |
|
|
34.5 % |
4.4 % |
38 |
6 |
25.9 % |
2.2 pp |
|
|
11.6 % |
-1.7 % |
39 |
-1 |
17.3 % |
2.3 pp |
|
|
39.2 % |
6.6 % |
37 |
7 |
21.9 % |
3.9 pp |
|
|
49.3 % |
8.2 % |
53 |
9 |
13.6 % |
1.1 pp |
|
|
61.7 % |
25.5 % |
50 |
12 |
20.4 % |
1.6 pp |
|
|
16.5 % |
11.6 % |
39 |
-2 |
22.2 % |
1.8 pp |
|
|
13.5 % |
10.0 % |
33 |
-5 |
17.3 % |
2.8 pp |
|
|
29.9 % |
6.3 % |
48 |
4 |
18.5 % |
-1.8 pp |
|
|
23.8 % |
6.3 % |
45 |
6 |
17.0 % |
-0.5 pp |
|
|
61.9 % |
3.0 % |
65 |
15 |
17.0 % |
2.1 pp |
|
|
25.3 % |
9.5 % |
52 |
2 |
17.9 % |
1.6 pp |
|
|
47.3 % |
15.9 % |
44 |
1 |
9.4 % |
5.1 pp |
|
|
46.9 % |
22.6 % |
46 |
1 |
24.2 % |
1.9 pp |
|
|
31.4 % |
5.7 % |
38 |
6 |
23.3 % |
0.7 pp |
|
|
36.5 % |
-0.6 % |
62 |
16 |
15.7 % |
-0.7 pp |
|
|
67.9 % |
10.3 % |
73 |
15 |
26.2 % |
3.5 pp |
|
|
7.8 % |
9.1 % |
31 |
1 |
20.1 % |
3.0 pp |
|
|
18.5 % |
9.5 % |
40 |
4 |
26.4 % |
-0.6 pp |
|
|
30.6 % |
14.0 % |
52 |
15 |
17.4 % |
-5.6 pp |
|
|
19.4 % |
-9.5 % |
79 |
13 |
19.1 % |
-2.6 pp |
|
|
1.6 % |
14.7 % |
57 |
-3 |
14.7 % |
1.0 pp |
|
|
37.6 % |
15.6 % |
45 |
-1 |
15.5 % |
3.5 pp |
|
|
68.6 % |
5.4 % |
65 |
15 |
4.7 % |
2.7 pp |
|
|
14.1 % |
7.7 % |
45 |
0 |
20.1 % |
1.1 pp |
|
|
48.8 % |
12.3 % |
56 |
17 |
25.0 % |
1.4 pp |
|
|
21.2 % |
9.0 % |
50 |
-1 |
18.2 % |
2.1 pp |
|
|
27.9 % |
14.7 % |
58 |
13 |
13.6 % |
5.6 pp |
|
|
32.6 % |
21.5 % |
35 |
-1 |
11.2 % |
8.9 pp |
|
|
48.4 % |
24.2 % |
51 |
8 |
17.3 % |
2.9 pp |
|
|
27.6 % |
20.1 % |
43 |
1 |
17.2 % |
3.0 pp |
|
|
40.3 % |
14.5 % |
54 |
5 |
28.1 % |
0.6 pp |
|
|
16.6 % |
8.2 % |
38 |
21 |
21.5 % |
-5.6 pp |
|
|
49.0 % |
8.6 % |
44 |
7 |
13.9 % |
2.5 pp |
|
|
22.3 % |
-8.3 % |
67 |
16 |
17.5 % |
-1.1 pp |
|
|
77.2 % |
21.5 % |
40 |
5 |
25.0 % |
3.6 pp |
|
|
27.6 % |
20.0 % |
33 |
4 |
27.4 % |
1.2 pp |
|
|
39.3 % |
27.1 % |
31 |
2 |
28.2 % |
0.4 pp |
|
|
67.9 % |
41.8 % |
43 |
6 |
16.5 % |
0.8 pp |
|
|
12.4 % |
2.3 % |
45 |
7 |
10.8 % |
1.1 pp |
|
|
74.0 % |
-2.3 % |
66 |
22 |
19.0 % |
5.5 pp |
|
|
26.4 % |
5.2 % |
41 |
5 |
25.9 % |
4.7 pp |
|
|
23.1 % |
26.2 % |
36 |
1 |
25.9 % |
-0.2 pp |
