The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.3 percent in March 2024 to 102.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.2 percent in February. Over the six-month period between September 2023and March 2024, the LEI contracted by 2.2 percent—a smaller decrease than the 3.4 percent decline over the previous six months.

"February's uptick in the U.S. LEI proved to be ephemeral as the Index posted a decline in March," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Negative contributions from the yield spread, new building permits, consumers' outlook on business conditions, new orders, and initial unemployment insurance claims drove March's decline. The LEI's six-month and annual growth rates remain negative, but the pace of contraction has slowed. Overall, the Index points to a fragile—even if not recessionary—outlook for the U.S. economy. Indeed, rising consumer debt, elevated interest rates, and persistent inflation pressures continue to pose risks to economic activity in 2024. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth to cool after the rapid expansion in the second half of 2023. As consumer spending slows, US GDP growth is expected to moderate over Q2 and Q3 of this year."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.3 percent in March 2024 to 112.0 (2016=100), after a 0.1 percent increase in February. As a result, the CEI rose by 0.6 percent over the six-month period ending March 2024, down from a 0.9 percent increase over the previous six months. The CEI's component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components of the index improved last month. Industrial production and personal income less transfer payments made the largest positive contributions to the Index.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. was unchanged in March 2024 at 119.0 (2016 = 100), after a 0.3 percent increase in February. The LAG is up by 1.0 percent over the six-month period from September 2023 to March 2024, after recording no growth over the previous six months.

The next release is scheduled for Friday, May 17, 2024, at 10 A.M. ET.