Homeowner Value Estimates Continue to Outpace Appraisals by a Widening Spread

Staff Report

Friday, April 28th, 2017

Home values continued to rise in March, but not at the pace homeowners estimated across much of the country. On average appraisals were 1.77 percent lower than what homeowners expected, according to the Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index. This marks the fourth consecutive month the gap between homeowner estimates and appraiser opinions of value widened.

Home values continued the upward movement of the last few months and maintained its positive trend which began in early 2012. Appraisals rose 0.63 percent from February to March, but showed strong growth of 3.30 percent year-over-year, according to Quicken Loans' National Home Value Index.

Home Price Perception Index

While home value perception varies across the country, The National HPPI shows a widening gap between what homeowners think their home is worth and the value appraisers assign. March is the fourth consecutive month of this growing trend, with appraisals 1.77 percent lower than homeowners' estimates. On the other hand, appraisals are showing higher values than homeowners expected in some of the hottest housing markets, many of those on the West Coast.

"The national average shows appraisals lower than homeowner expectations, but some cities are bucking that trend," said Quicken Loans Vice President of Capital Markets, Bill Banfield. "With prices sprinting forward in many of the booming housing markets in the West, it can be difficult for homeowners to keep up with appraisers, who are on the ground, examining real estate price changes every day. This study is one more reminder for consumers to keep an eye on their local market before selling or refinancing. The state of their local market could affect their home's value – on either end of the spectrum." 

Home Value Index

Quicken Loans' HVI, the only measure of home value change based solely on appraisal data, showed another month of growth in March. Nationally, home values rose 0.63 percent from the previous month. When viewed annually, appraised values increase an average of 3.30 percent. The study showed the strongest monthly growth in the Northeast, with a 1.78 percent increase. However, the South had the fastest annual increase with a 4.67 percent rise in home values.

"Real estate signs are beginning to pop up, even before leaves appear on the neighborhood trees. As home selling season gets started across the country, enthusiastic buyers are battling for available homes," said Banfield. "The increased attention to home sales has led to more competition for a relatively small inventory of homes, continuing to fuel the rising prices."   

 

HVI

March 2017

 

January 2005 =
100

 

 

HVI

March 2017

vs.

February 2017

% Change

 

 

HVI

March 2017

vs.

March 2016

% Change

 

 

HPPI

March 2017

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of
Value*

HPPI

March 2016

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of
Value*

National Composite

100.46

+0.63%

+3.30%

-1.77%

-2.17%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

Geographic

Regions

HVI

March 2017

 

January 2005 =
100

 

 

HVI

March 2017

vs.

February 2017

% Change

 

 

HVI

March 2017

vs.

March 2016

% Change

 

 

HPPI

March 2017

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of
Value*

HPPI

March 2016

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of
Value*

West

120.79

+0.71%

+3.61%

-1.46%

-1.92%

South

103.1

+0.84%

+4.67%

-1.75%

-2.14%

Northeast

83.43

+1.78%

+3.85%

-1.94%

-2.20%

Midwest

95.4

+0.86%

+2.11%

-1.96%

-2.36%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

Metropolitan

Areas

HPPI

March 2017

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

HPPI

February 2017

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

HPPI

March 2016

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

Denver, CO

+2.69%

+2.70%

+3.52%

Dallas, TX

+2.25%

+2.05%

+2.37%

Portland, OR

+1.77%

+1.81%

+1.76%

San Francisco, CA

+1.31%

+1.30%

+2.88%

Seattle, WA

+1.31%

+1.31%

-0.39%

Los Angeles, CA

+1.17%

+1.10%

+0.46%

Boston, MA

+1.10%

+1.05%

+0.82%

Charlotte, NC

+0.99%

+0.85%

-1.59%

San Jose, CA

+0.70%

+0.64%

+3.93%

Sacramento, CA

+0.59%

+0.82%

+1.05%

Houston, TX

+0.53%

+0.52%

+2.05%

Kansas City, MO

+0.47%

+0.49%

-1.79%

Minneapolis, MN

+0.43%

+0.73%

-0.75%

Miami, FL

+0.33%

+0.32%

-0.10%

San Diego, CA

+0.30%

+0.38%

+0.13%

Riverside, CA

-0.04%

-0.05%

+0.46%

Las Vegas, NV

-0.41%

-0.39%

+0.05%

Phoenix, AZ

-0.57%

-0.59%

-0.73%

Washington, D.C.

-0.70%

-0.44%

+0.09%

Atlanta, GA

-1.01%

-0.94%

-1.34%

Detroit, MI

-1.26%

-1.36%

-3.01%

Tampa, FL

-1.40%

-1.33%

-0.93%

New York, NY

-1.65%

-1.55%

-2.11%

Chicago, IL

-2.14%

-1.96%

-3.04%

Cleveland, OH

-2.41%

-2.17%

-1.91%

Baltimore, MD

-3.18%

-3.01%

-3.24%

Philadelphia, PA

-3.20%

-3.09%

-3.62%