While some fear the global economy is headed for a sequel to the 2008 financial crisis, BBVA Compass economists say the U.S. is unlikely to enter recession in 2016 and the probable route instead is a remake of 1986, when commodity-producing areas suffered but there was solid growth elsewhere.

The economists say in their latest report that the outlook for U.S. growth will be nuanced given the tumult in commodity markets. The U.S. has a 23 percent probability of recession as of the first quarter of 2016, the highest since 2009, writes BBVA Compass Senior Economist Boyd Nash-Stacey, and that probability leaps to 86 percent for oil-dependent areas. But those oil-dependent states account for only 11 percent of U.S. GDP, however.

"This helps explain why, despite a severe contraction in these states, the impact to aggregate U.S. output is not significant," writes Nash-Stacey, the author of the report. "Based on a state-by-state assessment, we expect growth to be positive in 2016, and thus broader risks of recession to remain low for the entire country."

In fact, low oil prices should positively influence U.S. growth in 2016 since most states are net importers of crude, Nash-Stacey said. States that have fared particularly well include California, Oregon, Washington, Florida and Georgia. Other areas will benefit from low oil prices, said Nash-Stacey, but the West Coast and Southeast are poised to be the brightest spots in the U.S. economy in 2016.  

The overall environment, said Nash-Stacey, is most similar to 1986, when the U.S. grew 3.5 percent year over year despite the severe downturns in commodity-rich areas. He identified 14 states that have a higher than 50 percent probability of recession, all of which have exposure to some combination of oil and gas, commodities or manufacturing. They are: Alaska, Alabama, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Texas accounts for more than 80 percent of the GDP of oil-dependent states, and the BBVA Compass Economic Research team has said the state will likely experience a mild recession this year before returning to positive growth in 2017. That will limit the overall impact on the U.S. economy, Nash-Stacey says, reducing overall GDP growth by less than .1 percentage point. 

Other findings from the report, "Back to the Future: 2016 Growth to Mirror 1986 Regional Decoupling":

• Since 1981, states have experienced 201 recessions — an average of four apiece.

• West Virginia, which is highly exposed to commodity cycles and industrial manufacturing, has experienced the most recessions (10), while Alaska had the fewest (2).

• The picture in Michigan is bleak: It has been in recession for 34 out of past 40 quarters.

• Oil prices declined 58 percent in 1986 vs. 71 percent in 2016.

• Washington state is poised to have the highest GDP growth in 2016 at 3.7 percent, followed by Utah (3.6 percent) and Florida (3.4 percent).