BBVA Compass Economist: Equipment Investments Rebound to Pre-recession Levels

Staff Report From Georgia CEO

Wednesday, April 6th, 2016

Despite the hand-wringing about U.S. companies' perceived reluctance to spend on business investments, their spending on actual equipment has rebounded to pre-recession levels, the latest report by BBVA Compass economists says, though the makeup of those outlays may help explain why there hasn't been a corresponding gain in GDP.

BBVA Compass Senior Economist Shushanik Papanyan, the author of the report, writes that while equipment investment has returned to its pre-Great Recession long-term trend, the gross output has done the opposite and converged on a lower growth rate. The bottom line is that companies are buying equipment but aren't producing more, she said.

"This is a new normal, much like we now understand there's going to be a new normal in oil prices and interest rates," Papanyan said. "If you dig deeper into the trends, you see that companies' expenditures have shifted. While they're spending the same overall on equipment, more of that is going toward software and intellectual property. They're trying to gain advantages in efficiencies, in other words, but they're not producing more because the demand just isn't there thanks to depressed consumer spending."

There has been a major shift in equipment expenditures since the 1960s, with manufacturing and agriculture accounting for far less. But equipment expenditures in health care and the finance sector made up for that loss. Papanyan also found that while equipment expenditures in the mining sector plummeted — which is to be expected since it includes oil and gas and reflects that industry's deep uncertainty — the overall impact will be limited.

"Yes, there are drastic cutbacks in the mining sector on business investment, but that's actually not expected to have a visible effect on overall equipment investment since the sector's share of that, pre-recession, was at just 3.9 percent," Papanyan said. "These shares haven't changed much since the 1960s."

Papanyan will present her findings and answer questions about trends in equipment investments next Thursday (April 7, 2016) during a Webex session at 10 a.m. CDT. To access the online meeting, click here. (If asked, enter the meeting number 713 270 216 and password bbva1234.) Or to listen in on the conference call, dial (877) 768-4036 or (972) 932-2100 and enter access code 713 270 216.