Home Price Gains Continue to Moderate

Press release from the issuing company

Wednesday, July 30th, 2014

Data through May 2014, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show the Composite Indices increased at a slower pace. The 10-City Composite gained 9.4% year-over-year and the 20-City 9.3%, down significantly from the +10.9% and +10.8% returns reported last month. All cities with the exception of Charlotte and Tampa saw their annual rates decelerate.

In the month of May, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted gains of 1.1%. For the second consecutive month, all twenty cities posted increases. Charlotte posted its highest monthly increase of 1.4% in over a year. Tampa gained 1.8%, followed by San Franciscoat +1.6% and Chicago at +1.5%. Phoenix and San Diego were the only cities to gain less than one percent with increases of 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.

In May 2014, the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted year-over-year increases of 9.4% and 9.3%, respectively.

"Home prices rose at their slowest pace since February of last year," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "The 10- and 20-City Composites posted just over 9%, well below expectations. Month-to-month, all cities are posting gains before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment 14 of 20 were lower.

"Year-over-year, nine cities – Las Vegas (16.9%), San Francisco (15.4%), Miami (13.2%), San Diego (12.4%), Los Angeles (12.3%),Detroit (11.9%), Atlanta (11.2%), Tampa (10.2%) and Portland (10.0%) – posted double-digit increases in May 2014. The Sun Belt continues to lead with seven of the top eight performing cities. Eighteen of 20 cities had lower year-over-year numbers than last month;San Francisco and San Diego saw their year-over-year figures decelerate by about three percentage points.

"Housing has been turning in mixed economic numbers in the last few months. Prices and sales of existing homes have shown improvement while construction and sales of new homes continue to lag. At the same time, the broader economy and especially employment are showing larger improvements and substantial gains."

As of May 2014, average home prices across the United States are back to their summer 2004 levels. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the peak-to-current decline for both Composites is approximately 17-18%. The recovery from the March 2012 lows is 26.5% and 27.3% for the 10-City and 20-City Composites.

While all cities continue to post year-over-year increases, gains weakened in May. Charlotte was the only MSA to see its annual rate improve; it posted 4.7% year-over-year in May versus 4.5% in April. Tampa held steady with a gain of 10.2%. Despite seeing their rates decrease by two to three percentage points, Las Vegas remained the top performing city with a return of +16.9%, followed by San Francisco at +15.4%.

All cities reported increases month-over-month with nine cities – Charlotte, Cleveland, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami,Minneapolis, New York and Tampa – showing larger increases in May than in April. Charlotte posted its largest monthly gain since April 2013 while Minneapolis, New York and Tampa showed their highest since August 2013. New York showed the most improvement with a gain of 1.0% in May versus 0.1% in April. Boston posted +1.1% in May, down from +2.9% in April. Dallas and Denver continue to set new peaks while Detroit remains the only city below its January 2000 value.

More than 27 years of history for these data series are available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market may also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices' housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

The table below summarizes the results for May 2014. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

           
 

May 2014

May/April

April/March

   

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

1-Year Change (%)

 

Atlanta

117.28

1.2%

1.9%

11.2%

 

Boston

175.30

1.1%

2.9%

8.2%

 

Charlotte

127.48

1.4%

1.2%

4.7%

 

Chicago

127.96

1.5%

1.9%

8.5%

 

Cleveland

106.16

1.2%

1.0%

2.4%

 

Dallas

138.51

1.3%

1.6%

8.6%

 

Denver

152.58

1.3%

1.6%

8.2%

 

Detroit

96.11

1.3%

1.2%

11.9%

 

Las Vegas

133.33

1.1%

0.5%

16.9%

 

Los Angeles

221.85

1.0%

0.8%

12.3%

 

Miami

185.32

1.2%

1.1%

13.2%

 

Minneapolis

140.37

1.3%

1.0%

8.4%

 

New York

172.53

1.0%

0.1%

4.8%

 

Phoenix

146.01

0.4%

0.4%

8.2%

 

Portland

167.11

1.2%

1.6%

10.0%

 

San Diego

201.85

0.5%

0.7%

12.4%

 

San Francisco

194.28

1.6%

2.4%

15.4%

 

Seattle

168.10

1.4%

2.3%

9.3%

 

Tampa

159.33

1.8%

1.2%

10.2%

 

Washington

209.61

1.0%

1.0%

5.8%

 

Composite-10

185.33

1.1%

1.0%

9.4%

 

Composite-20

170.64

1.1%

1.1%

9.3%

 

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

     

Data through May 2014

       
           

Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

A summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data can be found in the table below.

           
           
 

May/April Change (%)

April/March Change (%)

 

Metropolitan Area

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

 

Atlanta

1.2%

-0.9%

1.9%

-0.3%

 

Boston

1.1%

-0.5%

2.9%

1.9%

 

Charlotte

1.4%

0.5%

1.2%

0.3%

 

Chicago

1.5%

-0.8%

1.9%

0.8%

 

Cleveland

1.2%

-0.4%

1.0%

-0.8%

 

Dallas

1.3%

0.1%

1.6%

0.4%

 

Denver

1.3%

0.1%

1.6%

0.5%

 

Detroit

1.3%

-0.7%

1.2%

1.4%

 

Las Vegas

1.1%

0.7%

0.5%

0.4%

 

Los Angeles

1.0%

-0.1%

0.8%

-0.1%

 

Miami

1.2%

0.5%

1.1%

0.9%

 

Minneapolis

1.3%

-0.2%

1.0%

0.9%

 

New York

1.0%

-0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

 

Phoenix

0.4%

-0.2%

0.4%

0.0%

 

Portland

1.2%

-0.4%

1.6%

0.8%

 

San Diego

0.5%

-0.3%

0.7%

-0.3%

 

San Francisco

1.6%

-0.7%

2.4%

0.0%

 

Seattle

1.4%

-0.2%

2.3%

0.7%

 

Tampa

1.8%

0.7%

1.2%

0.1%

 

Washington

1.0%

-0.1%

1.0%

-0.7%

 

Composite-10

1.1%

-0.3%

1.0%

0.0%

 

Composite-20

1.1%

-0.3%

1.1%

0.1%

 

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

     

Data through May 2014