Owner Perceptions of Home Values Rise as the Year Ends

Staff Report

Wednesday, December 13th, 2017

Homeowners, on average, have a higher opinion of their home values than appraisers do. However, the gap between the average owners' estimates and the average appraised values has reached its narrowest margin in 2017. In November, home appraisals were an average of 0.67 percent lower than what owners expected, according to Quicken Loans' National Home Price Perception Index.

Though owner expectations have lagged appraiser opinions, home values continue to climb across the country. In fact, home values have risen 4.24 percent year-over-year – despite a slight 0.09 percent dip from October to November.   

Home Price Perception Index

The gap between owner perceptions and appraiser opinions of home values is the smallest since March 2015. November is also the sixth-straight month the gap between the two values has narrowed. Owner expectations were an average of 0.67 percent higher than what an actual appraisal showed, according to November's National HPPI. This value varies widely across the country. Cleveland is on the low end of the scale, with appraisals an average of 2.35 percent lower than expected. On the flip side, homeowners in Dallas are underestimating their homes' value – with the average appraisal 3.25 percent higher than what the owner estimated.

"It's encouraging to see opinions from homeowners and appraisers more aligned on a national level," said Bill Banfield, Quicken Loans Executive Vice President of Capital Markets. "Appraisals are one of the most important data points when applying for a mortgage. If an appraisal is lower than expected when refinancing, the homeowner will need to bring more funds to closing, or might even need the mortgage to be restructured. The more homeowners and appraisers agree, the smoother the process is." 

Home Value Index

Nationally, the HVI showed a slight dip in appraisal values in November – with a 0.09 percent decrease from October. However, a 4.24 percent increase since the previous year has helped maintain the positive momentum in the annual measure. While all regions had year-over-year growth, the southern and northeast experienced slight drops in average home value from October to November.

"As we move into the holiday season, Americans are focusing less on finding their dream home and more on finding the perfect gifts to give to their loved ones," said Banfield. "As housing demand temporarily cools this time of year, we also see a dip in home values. However, it's a promising sign to see values continue rising annually." 

 

 

HVI

November 2017

 

January 2005 = 100

HVI

November 2017

vs.

October 2017

% Change

HVI

November 2017

vs.

November 2016

% Change

HPPI

November 2017

 

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

HPPI

November 2016

 

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

National Composite

105.09

-0.09%

+4.24%

-0.67%

-1.00%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

 

Geographic

Regions

 

HVI

November 2017

 

January 2005 = 100

HVI

November 2017

vs.

October 2017

% Change

HVI

November 2017

vs.

November 2016

% Change

HPPI

November 2017

 

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

HPPI

November 2016

 

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

West

127.22

+0.30%

+4.61%

-0.43%

-0.77%

South

107.22

-0.19%

+5.84%

-0.70%

-0.99%

Northeast

99.24

-0.53%

+1.75%

-0.78%

-1.15%

Midwest

87.18

+0.21%

+4.91%

-0.79%

-1.32%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

 

Metropolitan

Areas

 

HPPI

November 2017

 

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

HPPI

October 2017

 

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

HPPI

November 2016

 

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

Dallas, TX

+3.25%

+3.13%

+1.94%

Denver, CO

+2.36%

+2.46%

+3.10%

Seattle, WA

+2.19%

+2.08%

+1.39%

San Jose, CA

+2.11%

+1.64%

+1.69%

San Francisco, CA

+1.93%

+1.75%

+2.19%

Boston, MA

+1.63%

+1.26%

+1.09%

Portland, OR

+1.47%

+1.53%

+2.12%

Charlotte, NC

+1.16%

+1.01%

+0.53%

San Diego, CA

+1.13%

+0.89%

+0.46%

Sacramento, CA

+1.06%

+0.71%

+0.95%

Los Angeles, CA

+0.99%

+0.91%

+1.32%

Miami, FL

+0.86%

+0.71%

+0.18%

Minneapolis, MN

+0.70%

+0.47%

+0.89%

Kansas City, MO

+0.64%

+0.50%

+0.40%

Las Vegas, NV

+0.61%

+0.28%

-0.72%

Phoenix, AZ

+0.46%

+0.48%

-0.78%

Riverside, CA

+0.32%

+0.11%

+0.03%

Detroit, MI

+0.28%

-0.07%

-2.11%

Tampa, FL

-0.01%

-0.03%

-1.47%

Washington, D.C.

-0.12%

-0.49%

-0.14%

Houston, TX

-0.31%

-0.32%

+0.79%

Atlanta, GA

-0.36%

-0.49%

-0.72%

New York, NY

-0.43%

-0.82%

-1.13%

Chicago, IL

-1.37%

-1.78%

-1.68%

Baltimore, MD

-2.24%

-2.57%

-2.62%

Philadelphia, PA

-2.33%

-2.69%

-2.87%

Cleveland, OH

-2.35%

-2.32%

-1.87%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.